The NFC East is Really Really Good
Hello friends. I know it’s been a while. I also know I haven’t updated my Sabermetric post. Be patient… it will come. Or, if you don’t wanna wait, then just read Baseball Between the Numbers.
But this post is not about baseball–in spite of the craziness of today, in which the Mets blew their playoff hopes in an eerily similar fashion to last year, and the Brewers find themselves in the postseason for the first time since the invention of the light bulb. No, instead, this post is about the NFC East; the clear cut best division in football.
Right now, the standings are: (1) New York Giants, 3-0 (2) Washington Redskins, 3-1 (3) Dallas Cowboys, 3-1 (4) Philadelphia Eagles, 2-1. The Eagles are currently hanging tough with the Bears and will most likely win. It is the only division in which all of the teams are above .500. In fact, of the three losses distributed among the division, every one came at the hands of a division rival (Giants beat the Redskins, Redskins beat the Cowboys, Cowboys beat the Eagles). Against teams in the rest of the league, the combined division is 8-0, outscoring teams 228-112, or 28.5-14 each game. That means they basically doubled up every opponent.
Now, granted, two of those victories came against the lowly Rams. But it’s astonishing to consider how strong this division is, even before this year. For two straight years, three out of four teams from the division have made the playoffs (one division winner and the other two taking the Wild Card), the most teams that any single division can send to the playoffs. Before those two years, that only ever happened once. And if the first four weeks are any indication, the division will send three times for a third year in a row. I mean, who else is going to make it? The invariably 8-8 Buccaneers?
Taking a look at the schedule, it becomes even clearer. Each team plays a division rival six times total in a year and ten games out of division. Of course, divisions rotate playing out-of-conference divisions, and this year, the NFC East plays the lowly AFC North. After this week, everyone but the Giants will have played two division games (the Giants only one). Let’s assume that they all split among each other, going 3-3. Looking purely at the first four weeks plus all division games (and assuming the Eagles beat the Bears), that makes each team 5-3. Here are the remaining schedules for each team (excluding division games):
Giants: vs. Seattle, @ Cleveland, vs. San Fransisco, @ Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore, @ Arizona, vs. Carolina, @ Minnesota
Eagles: @ San Fransisco, vs. Atlanta, @ Seattle, @ Cincinnati, @ Baltimore, vs. Arizona, vs. Cleveland
Cowboys: vs. Cincinnati, @ Arizona, @ St. Louis, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. San Fransisco, vs. Seattle, @ Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore
Redskins: vs. St. Louis, vs. Cleveland, @ Detroit, vs. Pittsburgh, @ Seattle, @ Baltimore, @ Cincinnati, @ San Fransisco
Clearly not the toughest of schedules. I would not be surprised if every team finishes above 9-7. People have talked for a few years about how the NFC East is the best, but this year it seems to especially be true. Can we just agree to allow all four teams to make the playoffs and just ignore the NFC West?
When you consider power rankings across the league, there’s no doubt that all four of these teams are top 10. And in my opinion, after the Cowboys were dethroned this week, the Giants sit atop the rankings, with the Cowboys somewhere around spot #3, the Redskins around #6 or #7, and the Eagles in the other slot. As an aside: funny how quickly the changing of the guard has come in terms of king of the conference hill. Just two years ago, the NFC was a joke with maybe two powerhouse teams. Now, the AFC is faltering, and it seems like the NFC top to bottom matches up quite well against the AFC top to bottom. Obviously it will take a few more weeks to get a complete understanding of where teams stack against each other, but it’s quite clear now that the NFC East is the cream of the crop.
edit: It seems that I’ve eaten a few words and the Eagles lost to the Bears — though I will maintain that the Eagles looked like the better team; the Eagles were without their best plyaer, and I am completely convinced that Buckhalter got in at the end there. Still, can’t say that I’m complaining about breathing room in the division. The Giants could always use some.
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